I wouldn’t blame this on the Patriots trading down. When the Patriots trade down they are able to fill more holes. The Patriots started the draft with very limited options for Brady to pass to (no TE depth and no #2 receiver) and questionmarks at nickel CB (who plays a lot nowadays), pass rushing LB, defensive end, running back, and punter. One could argue that Guyton may not be a game-changer and can be upgraded as well. I count a need for 8, maybe 9 players.

The Patriots entered the draft with 4 picks in the first three rounds and 5 picks in the first five rounds. Without trading, the Patriots would have been lucky to fill 5 of those 8-9 needs I think the critics are overlooking that the Patriots brought in 7 players in the first 5 rounds to fill most of those needs… while setting themselves up next as early favorites to control the 2011 draft.

It seems that analysts should be rewarding Belichick with praise for squeezing every ounce of talent they could out of the draft. Criticism should probably come from missteps of moves outside the draft… trading too much for Burgess, Joey Galloway debacle, Adalius Thomas, losing all TEs at the same time, etc. Add in a little bad luck, Brady and Welker missing large parts of seasons (assuming that Welker isn’t going to be ready this year) and it’s not too hard to see why some of the luster is gone from the Patriots.

It’s been almost two years since I wrote on this blog. When I last wrote the Patriots were recovering from missing a near perfect season. I looked at the Patriots Early Free Agency… after that game and I feel like I was pretty close with most of the picks. I got Gay and Washington wrong as they both left, but hit on the other 6 players that I guessed on. I also predicted the Patriots would get linebacker help with the #7 pick. They traded down to #10 and picked Defensive Rookie of the Year in Mayo.

Now it’s a time to look back at the 2009 season as well as forward to what 2010 may bring.

Looking back at 2008

Before we get to 2009, let’s talk about the Patriots’ 2008 season… yes the Matt Cassel season. People were saying that the Patriots were done because they didn’t make the playoffs despite the fact that they won 11 games with a back-up quarterback and a defense so filled with injuries that they had to had to bring Rosie Colvin and Junior Seau off the streets. They finished up the season beating teams in convincing fashion including a 44-7 drubbing of the NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals.

Many people don’t realize that the 11-5 record that the Patriots had in 2008 was good enough for a first round bye in 2001. I personally feel the 2008 Patriots were a better team than that Super Bowl winning 2001 bunch. That 11-5 record was also 3 more wins than the 8-8 Chargers who got to host a playoff game. So when you hear that the 2008 Patriots weren’t good because they didn’t make the playoffs, it’s more likely media hype than anything else.

Looking back at 2009

I think most people are going to have a really negative view of the Patriots 2009 season. I don’t agree with most people. Before I get into the specifics on why, I will refer you to some statistical analysis that the Patriots were actually a very good team in 2009. Jeff Sagarin has been compiling NFL data for years and years and he has the Patriots as the 6th best team at this point that’s including the playoff loss. The Pure Points rating that he considers the most important factor has them as the 5th best team in the NFL. I think the Patriots rank so high because they’ve played a lot of tough teams (four games against the top 3 as it stands today).

The Patriots 10-6 record masks that they were really quite competitive in nearly every game. In the games they lost, they typically only lost about one quarter of the game. The loss in Indianapolis was really in the last 5 minutes. The same thing happened in Denver, Miami, Texas. You could say that the Patriots couldn’t close games, and that would be true, but you could also say that the team wasn’t that from 14-2 or 15-1 season. The Patriots lost the 3rd quarter at the Jets early in the season, but outscored them in the other three quarters.

The two big losses (by more than a touchdown) came against the Saints and the Ravens. In the Saints game, the Patriots gave up 21 points in the 2nd quarter. Many talked about the miscommunication in the defense started to snowball on them and the bickering lead to more problems and the game spiraled out of control. The Patriots out-played the Saints for the first quarter and the second half was a close game, which tells me that there wasn’t quite as bad as it seemed.

The other big loss was against the Ravens in the playoffs. If you watched this game, you know that there were three big plays early on in the game. The Patriots missed a key assignment on the first play and Ray Rice ran for a long touchdown on the first play. When the Patriots got the ball back, they missed a key block and Brady was strip-sacked which lead to another Ravens’ score. The next Patriots turnover after that also seemed to be because of a missed blocking assignment where Brady tried to do too much to make up for it and threw an interception.

If it sounds odd to justify those two losses, I’d like to go back to make the point that those were the only two losses by more than a touchdown and the only two games where the Patriots didn’t lead fairly late. In contrast to those two losses the Patriots won 7 games by more than a touchdown.

I intend to go a little further into the Patriots outlook in the future, but that’s a much bigger article.

• Asante Samuel – It looks like it’s time to say sayonara to Asante. Quite a few sources say he’s going to the Eagles for a 5-6 year contract at 50-60 million. I think he’ll be good, but not worth that kind of money outside of Bill Belichick’s defense. He might want to look at Ty Law and Lawyer Milloy’s success outside of New England. It’s hard to turn down that kind of money, but I wonder how much endorsement money would be available to him if he had a career of winning. With a superstar smile and continued good play, the sky was the limit
• Tedy Bruschi – It looks like he’s ready to sign, not just a one year deal, but a multi-year deal according to some reports. Either way, it’s almost a lock that he’s back.
• Randy Moss – Everyone is talking about him, but from everything he said this year, he’ll be the happiest person in the world to finish his career with Tom Brady. Contrary to popular belief, he’s a brilliant person and realizes that if he stays with the Patriots he’s got a very good chance at the Hall of Fame. If he leaves he runs the risk of going back to a team like Oakland. He’s got more than enough money and is just looking for a situation that is good for him. He knows he found it.
• Randall Gay – Even though he’s testing free agency, I get the feeling that he’ll be back with the Patriots. Unlike the other thoughts, this is just a hunch.Ke
• Kelly Washington – It looks like he’ll be back. I look forward to seeing him play WR for a change. This is a probability because…
• Donte Stallworth – …looks to be leaving. I loved him as a player, but he was under-utilized.
• Eugene Wilson – It looks like you are leaving… it wasn’t supposed to end like this. I thought you’d be the Atwater/Lott of the Patriots with the way you hit. And I expected you to fill in at CB because that’s what you were drafted for.
• Colvin – Goodbye… I thought you’d be great for us, but injuries did you in. Like Smelly Cat, it’s not your fault. Maybe you’ll end up signing with us at a discount. I doubt it, but you never know. The team can use you and other teams might not take a chance with your injuries.

Wrapping things up…
I think the Patriots need to trade down from their #7 pick. They need too much help at LB and CB. Of course if they can sign Lance Briggs and work him into the system that would work too.

• What if the referees called the fumble recovery by Pierre Woods correctly? Even New Jersey fans saw it was clearly recovered by Woods until the Giants flipped him over and took the ball away. I can only assume that’s not a reviewable play. It should be.
• What if the Patriots kick the 50-yard field goal instead of going for it on 4th and 13? Gostkowski can hit a 50-yarder in a dome.
• What if one of three Patriots actually sack Manning on Tyree’s amazing 30+ yard circus catch?
• What if Asante Samuel brings down the interception at the end of the game?

I’m reminded that sports are a game of inches. There are times when the ball bounces against you. This was one of those times.

1. Motivation – The Patriots didn’t need any more motivation than the possibility of going 19-0. However, with renewed talk of Spygate, the Patriots could have a little extra.
2. Best Quarterback – Tom Brady has set nearly every quarterback record in history.
3. Complementary Wide Receivers – It’s pretty rare to have a Hall of Fame deep threat in Randy Moss and a great possession receiver who can break tackles like Wes Welker. Stallworth could be a #1 or #2 receiver on a lot of teams. On the Patriots he’s number 4.
4. Laurence Maroney – He’s always going to be compared to Joseph Addai of the Colts. They came out of the same draft, were picked at around the same time, and went to the best two teams of the decade. Ten weeks ago, you’d say that the Addai was by far the better running back. Today, it looks a lot closer. Some of that is that Addai’s production dropped off a little, while Maroney is running like a champion.
5. Week 17 Match-up – The Patriots came out tight on this game. I don’t think they expected the Giants to care or play hard in week 17.
6. Best Coach – The Patriots have a Hall of Fame coach and one of the best at making in-game adjustments.
7. Humble Pie – In the history of great teams, it seems that every team has had to deal with getting over-confident. I haven’t heard one analyst say that’s a fear for the Patriots.
8. Experience and Pressure – There’s a lot of pressure on the Patriots, but is it any more than any other Super Bowl game? I’m not sure. The Patriots do have a lot of experience in the Super Bowl with a quarterback who has already won three.
9. Kickers – A lot of analysts (including ESPN’s Hammering Hank) have reminded us that the Patriots have one 3 super bowls by 3 points each. I don’t think the past is an indicator of future performance.
10. Prediction – I think the Patriots start of strong and maybe go up 14-3. If that happens it will take the Giants a little out of their game and it could snowball on them. I could see a 34-17 game coming from that.

In the article Hegedus claims that the Patriots are not the greatest team due to so-so competition, Tom Brady is not the best quarterback (see the competition thing), and Belichick is not a genius.

I think Belichick got the genius moniker from beating the Rams in 2001. As 14 point underdogs to the Steelers, the Patriots came in and won – fairly convincingly. As 14-17 point underdogs to the Rams (Greatest Show on Turf), they won. The talent on that team wasn’t great – no real pro-bowlers except maybe Ty Law.

As for this team’s place in history, I’m going to have refute the so-so competition judgment. As someone on CNBC, you no doubt realize that the NFL is the biggest team sport in America now. Billions of dollars are invested in it from scouting to training to make the players the very best they can be. In 1985 it wasn’t this way. Football was no doubt big, but it had to fight with the NBA for Celtics/Lakers rivalries. It had to compete with the national past-time of MLB. Today the MLB is shocked by the steroids and many people don’t watch the NBA any more. Hockey has taken a dive as well. Football is the only sport to have gotten more popular.

If you go back and look at the best football teams, who would be the greatest if not these Patriots? Would you go with the 1972 Dolphins as many have suggested? They faced much worse competition only beating two teams with .500 records. Would you go with 1989 49ers? I might buy that, but I don’t see how their competition was better than the Patriots. Dallas then and the Colts now are about equal. San Deigo now has to fit in there as well. Is it the 1985 Bears? How can the best team lose a game? It seems to me that the NFL has as much competition as ever with people on the lines being 350 pounds and players that look more like body builders than anything else.

Is Brady the best quarterback ever? Well that all hinges on the competition comment. Up until this year, he hasn’t had good wide receivers. Yes there was Deion Branch, but what has he done in Seattle? Davids Patten and Givens have been silent since leaving Tom’s arm. These were all successful players with Tom Brady as their quarterback. What did Wes Welker and Randy Moss do last year with their teams? Not enough to keep them from being traded for what seems like pennies on the dollar.

Who is a better quarterback than Tom Brady? Is it Joe Montana? He’s a great choice, but he also had a guy named Rice to pass to his whole career. He also has had Taylor receiving and Craig running the ball. Brady supporting cast hasn’t been nearly as good. I would listen to arguments that Marino is the best QB, but he wasn’t good enough to take the Dolphins to a Super Bowl victory, so I have to wonder about that. There’s Peyton Manning and he should get a lot of credit. He’s come up short in the playoffs more often than not. While he’s had the great receivers that Brady was lacking (Harrison, Wayne), he hasn’t had the benefit of the Patriots defense until recently. If they had the same about of titles, I’d call that a draw.

Mr. Hegedus, I love watching your short pieces on CNBC. And you are right that the “greatest” gets tossed around too much nowadays. This is one case where it is actually fitting. I suppose when another NFL team goes 18-0 we can compare.

Mercury Morris says that the zero is the important part and the fact that the Patriots have to win two extra games is irrelevant. I hate to get logical, but with each game, there’s a chance to lose. Even Mercury Morris notes that on any given Sunday any team can lose. The Patriots shouldn’t be penalized for playing in an era were there are more Sundays.

Someone should point to Mercury Morris that his Dolphins played teams with a 70-108-4 combined record and only win 2 games against .500 or better teams. In just the regular season, the Patriots opponents were 94-89. That record climbs with the win over the Jaguars and this weekend’s game against the Chargers.

Even if the Patriots lose this weekend, the 1972 Dolphins no longer stand alone.

Hindsight is always 20/20. I don’t think the Patriots would trade an undefeated regular season for a couple of draft slots.

• Chargers
• 49ers
• Raiders
• Seahawks

When the dates come out, I’ll definitely be marking the 49ers and Raiders on my calendar. The Chargers and Seahawks would be fun games to go to since we have friends in San Deigo and Seattle. It would still be a bit of drive or a quick plane ride to get to them.

Overall it seems like an extraordinary difficult schedule. Playing against the Colts and Chargers on the road is tough. Playing 4 games on the opposite coast is a lot of traveling as well.